Arnold Palmer Invitational

Arnold Palmer Invitational

For the risk of sounding like a stuck record it was another hugely frustrating end to a week, which had promised much more heading in to the weekend. Last week it was Chan Kim who couldn’t quite deliver a big priced e/w return for us and this week it was the turn of Andrew Novak and Sam Ryder.

Both men had started the weekend in the frame, however Ryder had his struggles on Saturday before bouncing back on Sunday, while Novak who was within two of the lead as he stood over a 7ft birdie putt on the 13^th hole in round four stalled from there on in before failing to birdie the par 5 18^th to end up in that graveyard of all good e/w bets, ninth.

At some point our luck will turn, however at the moment Sundays, or indeed Monday’s this week, are definitely not our friend.

The event itself was won by Autin Eckroat. Long considered a player with huge potential Eckroat produced an excellent final round to see off a congested leaderboard to bag his maiden tour title.

So onwards we go to the second leg of the Florida Swing, The Arnold Palmer Invitational. The API was founded in 1979 as a successor to the Florida Citrus Invitational and since then the event has been played at the Bay Hill Lodge and Country Club.

Since the 2015 edition the winner has been granted a three year exemption on the PGA Tour as opposed to the standard two year exemption players usually receive for a win.

This brings it on a par with the winners of World Golf championships, The Memorial, the Tour Championship and the Genesis Invitational.

This year the event is the fourth of this season’s ‘Signature Events’ and like the previous two there is a limited field of between 70-80 in attendance. The final field will be made up of last seasons top 50, ‘the next ten, the ‘swing five’ and sponsors invitations, with tournament host Tiger Woods taking one of those spots.

In addition like the last Signature Event, the Genesis Invitational, this week a cut will be in play with the top 50 and those within ten shots of the lead through 36 holes playing the weekend.

The market is headed up by Scottie Scheffler who is followed by Rory McIlroy. This duo are then followed in the market by the usual suspects of, Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland and Patrick Cantlay.

COURSE

Bay Hill is a Wilson & Joe Lees design, which underwent a redesign from Arnold Palmer in 2009.

Bay Hill is a Par 72 playing to just over 7400 yards of the tee. Compared to last week’s venue PGA National there is more room of the tee.

The greens are TiffEagle Bermuda.

With more room of the tee Bay Hill can be seen as a second shot golf course. The rough has been grown up more around the greens over recent years so finding the greens and the right spots on them is important.

HISTORY

So let’s take a look at the past ten winners;

2023 Kurt Kitayama

2022 Scottie Scheffler

2021 Bryson Dechambeau

2020 Tyrrell Hatton

2019 Francesco Molinari

2018 Rory McIlroy

2017 Marc Leishman

2016 Jason Day

2015 Matt Every

2014 Matt Every

Looking at this list of winners I have to be honest and say that it is hard to pin down completely an angle as to whether course form or current form has been more of a driver over the years.

Obviously if we take Tiger’s historical wins as an outlier and put them to one side we are left with Hatton, Molinari, McIlroy, Day, Leishman, Every [twice], Dechambeau, Scheffler and most recently Kitayama to look at.

2021 winner Dechambeau had posted just one top 20 in the year, which was in Sentry ToC, while 2020 champion Hatton arrived here having made just one start in the calendar year after returning from a wrist injury. That start had come a fortnight before though in the WGC Mexico where he finished sixth so he should have arrived in a positive mindset.

Molinari had only made two starts on the year prior to his victory, however again a couple of weeks before he had finished an eye catching 17^th at the WGC Mexico. In addition he was seen as something of a course specialist posting three top ten finishes and nothing worse than 34^th place in his six previous starts here. This could also be said for Dechambeau who had notched two top fives here in four previous starts.

2018 winner Rory McIlroy was in no real forming coming in last year but had finished 4^th here the year before, his best result in Orlando.

In essence though he is of course simply a world class act who can find his best at any given moment.

The same can be said for Jason Day who hadn’t done much here prior to his win, nor was he in great touch leading in in 2016, his year of victory.

Leishman had nothing particularly in his course or current form leading in to telegraph his win…and then of course there is Matt Every….

The year Matt first won in 2014 a case could certainly have been made for him as he had posted two top 10s in his previous three starts including an 8^th place finish the week before at the Valspar.

In addition Every is of course a Florida guy through and through and had played steadily here over the previous two years.

The following year though when Matt defended, other than the fact that we had the course form to go on, it was impossible to make a case for him as his best finish all season prior to his defence was a 27^th in the limited field, year opening, Tournament of Champions!

In 2022 Scheffler arrived here in the early stages of his heater that would see him go on to triumph both in the Matchplay and of course at Augusta over the forthcoming weeks, at this stage though he had landed his maiden tour title at Phoenix two starts ago and followed it up with a seventh place at Riviera so clearly he was on the crest of a wave. With regards to course form though he had made just one previous start at Bay Hill in 2020 when he finished 15^th.

Finally last years champion Kitayama won here on the back of nothing better than 23^rd in five starts on tour that year and on his debut in the event so well done if you picked him coming in to that week!

As you can see then a bit of mixed bag with no specific pointer.

What has historically struck me here though looking at the list of past winners is that the event as a whole clearly favours aggressive players who can take advantage of the par 5s and this is backed up by the fact that par 5 scoring has historically been a key statistic here.

The 2019 winner Molinari broke this mould as he would hardly be seen as an ‘aggressive type’ in the vein of a Dechambeau, Woods, McIlroy, Day etc and he was only -3 for the week on the par 5s and it could be that thicker rough than usual was responsible for this.

2020 winner Hatton though as most will remember triumphed here in conditions that due to a combination of wind, thick rough if you missed the fairways and firm greens, which were brutal, bordering unplayable over the weekend and his winning score of 4- under saw him be one of only four players to finish under par. Look behind that though and the Englishman who ranked tenth on the PGA Tour last season in par five scoring finished the week 6- under for the par fives so it is clear to see where his score was predominantly made.

In 2022 Scheffler made hay on the par fives playing them in 11- under through the week while being a combined 6+ over for the par three’s and four’s to tally his over 5- under winning total. This again tied in with the Texan’s season long par five scoring average which saw him fifth in this department.

Last year though it must be said other than on day one Kitayama struggled on the par fives playing -3 on the first day but level on them for the rest of the week.

One streak that was broken by Scheffler in 2022 is that prior to his win every one of the winners here since Ernie Els in 2010 had played in the event the previous year to their victory and made the cut. This trend was again broken by Kitayama last year who as noted earlier was making his debut in the event.

In addition, with the exception of Laird who finished 74^th the year prior to his success, none of those eight previous winners in the past ten years had finished worse than 34^th twelve months prior, while the last seven had all finished in the top 30 the year before, with the five winners prior to Hatton who finished 29^th had all finished top 20.

Scheffler though bucked this trend simply because he didn’t tee it up here in 2021, however perhaps more pertinently in his previous start to his win here, which was in 2020 he finished 15^th so the hint of his suitability to the track was there.

Returning to the list of winners and the other thing it is impossible to not pick up on is that of the last 13 editions if you include Els in 2010] only seven of them have been won by American’s with Every and Woods accounting for four of these in addition to Dechambeau, Scheffler and Kitayama.

In simple terms then allowing for the fact that Tiger won here in 2008 and 2009, whilst Singh and Pampling were victorious in the previous two years, outside of Tiger, Kitayama, Scheffler, Dechambeau and Every are the only Americans to win here since Kenny Perry in 2005. Quite a stat!

From a correlating course point of view the obvious reference to me are the other big boy par 72/71 tracks such as Muirfield Village home of the Memorial and Quail Hollow while also of course general form on the Bermuda in Florida is always a good pointer.

Finally the winning score over the years has varied somewhat dependent on the level of rough and also, as is always the case in Florida, the weather.

In 2021 Dechambau posted -11 however as noted earlier conditions transpired to make the event play incredibly tough in 2020 with Hatton triumphing on -4 and it was a similar story in 2022 with Scheffler grinding out a winning score of 5- under. Last year things played  a fraction easier with Kitayama posting 9- under.

In 2019 Molinari posted a -12 total to take home the trophy while the previous year McIlroy posted -18.

Prior to that the winning total had varied from -11 to -19 over the recent years.

WEATHER FORECAST

We have seen some really tough conditions here over the recent years and if the early forecast is anything to go by things could get tough again once more this week.

The early part of the week shows the chance for some storms, however with the exception of the potential for a storm on Friday we look set for a dry week once the event gets underway.

Temperatures look to be warm for this time of year, in the mid to high 80s, however it is the wind, which after a calmer day on Thursday is forecast as I Write to gust at 20+mph for the remainder of the week, which will cause the players the most problems.

As I always so though, this could all change!

PICKS

I have gone with five players this week as follows;

MAX HOMA – 25/1 – 2pts E/W – 1/5 odds 1st 7. - FINISHED 8th

As is the want in these Signature Events you can work your way down the top of the betting and make a case for many of the leading names. Scheffler as always is a half decent putting week away from a win, Cantlay & Schauffele are knocking on the door most weeks while Hovland saw an upturn in for last time out.

That said, my eyes are drawn to Max Homa and I will start my team off, with the Californian this week.

Max of course is normally associated with big performances over on the West Coast however this year, he failed to deliver his normal Golden State trophy and until his 16^th place at Riviera it had been a struggle for him out west.

At Riviera though after a hugely disappointing opening 73, which put him in line to miss the cut Max produced a tremendous rally with a 65 on Friday before steady rounds 70 and 69 saw him notch a creditable finish.

My hunch then is that whereas in the recent years Homa has arrived in Florida with a win or at least a great West Coast under his belt, something, which may well have lead to him taking his foot off the gas, this year he will have been working hard over the past couple of weeks off to build on the uptick and will now be looking to push on.

As noted before Homa is known for his West Coast feats, he has shown with his two wins at Quail Hollow how comfortable he is on a challenging ‘big boy’ layout, while his win at Torrey Pines also sits very nicely here. Meanwhile if we look specifically at his Bay Hill Form that his four visits here have seen nothing worse than a 24^th place on debut.

Homa has shown he has the grit then to tough it out on a challenging track and I’ll take him this week, coming in slightly under the radar at bigger odds, to push on from a disappointing West Coast.

WYNDHAM CLARK –  50/1 – 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 7 - FINISHED 2nd

Next up I’ll take another player who tends to thrive in tough conditions, Wyndham Clark.

A winner of course for the first time on tour last year at Quail Hollow, Clark backed that up with a superb performance just a few weeks later at LA Country Club to bag the US Open Trophy.

Long off the tee Clark currently sits eighth on tour in the par five scoring averages so he is ideally suited you would think to taking advantage of the four par fives here, so often the key to success. Add that to his strong putting touch and although he is yet to show anything of note here, I have to believe he has an ideal game for this test.

Wyndham’s 2024 to date has seen him produce busts of explosive scoring pretty much every week most notably of course when a third round 60 vaulted him to the top of the leaderboard at Pebble Beach on day three before he found himself with the trophy after Sunday was washed out.

Ultimately though Clark strikes me as a player who is at his best on a tough challenging layout.

With three wins to his name in less than 12 months he is riding on a crest of a wave and having spoken of his ambitions of late to get to the top of the game he is showing no signs of letting up.

At the odds then and allowing for his strike rate he seems great value bet to me on this test and I’ll happily side with him.

HARRIS ENGLISH  45/1 - 1pt E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 21st

Next up is another player who has the obvious credentials to thrive here this week, Harris English.

The preview for Harris here pretty much writes itself. The Georgia Bulldog arrives here on the back of a 17^th place in Phoenix and a seventh place at Riviera in his last two starts. Add that to two further top 14 finishes to start the year in Hawaii and no missed cuts this season and he is clearer playing some great stuff right now.

Harris notched a ninth place finish here in 2020 when Hatton triumphed in brutal conditions, while he was second here last year so clearly he enjoys the test. Meanwhile a third place finish at Torrey Pines in the US Open and a third place at Wells Fargo last year, when he finished incidentally alongside Bay Hill specialist Tyrrell Hatton, give us more evidence for this type of challenge.

KURT KITAYAMA – 66/1 - 1pt e/w 1/5 odds 1^st 7. - FINISHED MC

Next up after scanning down the odds I was almost coming to the conclusion that Kurt Kitayama had withdrawn before being astonished to find him at a more than generous 66/1.

In his short time on tour Kurt has become known as someone who thrives both on tough tests and in windy conditions and therefore while of course his win here last year was a shock, it perhaps shouldn’t be considered too much of a surprise that he relished wat Bay Hill had to offer.

Roll on 12 months then and with a fourth place in last springs PGA under his belt, and currently on a run of ten consecutive weekends played stretching back to last summer Kitayama returns to defend his trophy and appears to have been written of as a fluke winner by the layers.

Whereas last year though Kitayama’s form had been patch pre Bay Hill, this year he has been solid every week with a best of eighth just a couple of starts ago in Phoenix. Furthermore he currently sits 20^th in approach play for the season and 24^th from tee to green with only the putter holding him back.

Last year though on his way to victory Kurt ranked third here on the greens even though he had a similarly poor season long ranking so if he can rekindle that magic on the dance floor from last year he is a serious player allowing for the current state of his long game.

I’ll take Kurt then to follow in Matt Every’s footsteps and make a successful defence of his trophy.

PATRICK RODGERS -  100/1 - 1pt E/W - 1/6 odds 1st 10 - FINISHED 25th

Finally then to the collective groans it’s ‘back to the well’ with Patrick Rodgers.

Patrick made our selections for the second time this year in Mexico where having narrowly missed the places for us Torrey Pines he bagged a full each way return for us.

Buoyed by his second top ten of the year then Patrick returns to Bay Hill where he has enjoyed his time over the years making the cut on six of eight visits with a best of seventh in 2018.

In addition if we delve back in to Patrick’s CV we have some big performances at Quail Hollow and Muirfield Village, which as we know sit well here.

Rodgers is steadily knocking on the door more and more and with it only being a matter of time until the week it all clicks I’ll take my chances once more at juicy each way odds that he can make the frame once more at least.